Traditional forecasting relies on retrospective data and actuarial models to evaluate risk associated with a population or system. Traditional models also lack the ability to factor in behavioral dynamics and geospatially-accurate information. FRED (Framework for Epidemiological Dynamics) is a customizable modeling platform that supports decision making and forecasting based on the dynamic interactions of humans in their daily social interactions. The power and customization capabilities of FRED give non-technical users in healthcare, politics, insurance, and other industries the ability to create more dynamic models and forecasts to better inform their decisions.

Technology Description

FRED is an agent-based model that can include personal behaviors, social-demographics, local environments, resource allocations, and risk mitigation strategies. The model’s flexible, customizable, object-oriented design is built to represent dynamic conditions in a synthetic population that is statistically equivalent to the real population in any given county or state. FRED supports various models of health behavior change to facilitate the study of critical personal health behaviors, such as vaccine acceptance, personal hygiene and spontaneous social distancing. No other agent-based population health models provide the flexibility, modularity, extensibility, and level of geographic and demographic specificity of the FRED synthetic population. In addition, these systems focus on acute infectious disease epidemics, whereas FRED can model general health conditions. Finally, FRED is the only system that can project population demographics into the future.

Advantages

  • Customizable to client need and industry
  • Includes interactions among population and the environment and to factor for behavioral dynamics into forecast
  • No computer programming required
  • Provides a simple workflow environment
  • Manages all data produced by simulation and associated metadata

Applications

  • Short-term reserve optimization planning
  • Disease progression modeling
  • Forecasting health risk in new markets
  • Health planning and population health decision making
  • Evaluation of risk mitigation strategy and policy
  • Planning for population health threats and natural and man-made disasters

IP Status

Invention disclosure was submitted to the Innovation Institute on May 22, 2017.

Stage of Development

FRED has over a decade of development and will have a fully functional web-based user interface by November 2017.

Notable Mentions

  • Funded by the MIDAS, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
  • Used for disease modeling in partnership with the Department of Homeland Security, multiple Robert Wood Johnson Foundation funded projects including: 100 Resilient Cities, Data Across Sectors for Health
  • Adapted to preparedness and planning efforts on the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, to understand the progression of chronic disease, and to map the opioid epidemic
  • Mentioned in TIME Magazine’s Heroes of Vaccine History in the 20th Century issue